Forecast the Number of Unemployed in Thailand Classified by Education Level using Differential Equation Model

kachin Goganutapon

Abstract


The purpose of this study were 1) to create a differential equation model to predict the number of unemployed in Thailand classified by the qualification that is successful, the primary and lower education, junior high school, senior high school, vocational certificate, high vocational certificate and higher education, ad 2) Predict the number of unemployed people in Thailand classified by education in the future using information from the website of the National Statistical Office from 2001 to 2017, totally 17 values. Is divided into 2 sets, set 1 is data from year 2001 to year 2016, 16 numbers for creating differential equations to predict the number of unemployed in Thailand check the relationship between the differential equation model and the real value and the suitability of the forecasting model with the correlation coefficient (R), coefficient of determination (R2) coefficient of improvement decision (R2 - Adjusted), estimation of standard error of regression equation and analysis of the recession, respectively. Set 2 is the data from 2008 to 2017, 10 numbers for precision checking. Considering the average absolute error percentage (MAPE) and the square root of the mean square error (RMSE). Both values are low.
The research found that
1. Differential equation model for forecasting the number of unemployed by qualification achieved in Thailand

Primary and lower education is
Junior high school is
Senior high school is
Vocational certificate is
High vocational certificate is
Higher education is
When and differential equation model for predictions of unemployed graduating in primary and lower education, junior high school graduation, senior high school graduation, vocational certificate graduation, high vocational certificate graduation and higher education graduation respectively ,ordering at the time of t.
2. Number of unemployed graduates’ primary and lower education have a tendency to decrease but the unemployed graduates junior high school graduation, senior high school graduation, vocational certificate graduation, high vocational certificate graduation and higher education graduation upward trend.


Keywords


Mathematics and Applied Statistics

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Progress in Applied Science and Technology

Faculty of Science and Technology
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